Introduction: Nature of Conflict

A war can be defined as “an occurrence of purposive and lethal violence among two or more social groups pursuing conflicting political goals that results in fatalities, with at least one belligerent group organized under the command of authoritative leadership.”[1]  As per the definition the first instances of documented wars have been noted around the last Ice Age, at the late end of the Palaeolithic age.  There are a few sites which has been identified, mostly along the upper Nile region where some evidences of interpersonal violence on individuals buried in Jebel Sahaba with cases of projectile impacts, unhealed punctures and embedded artefact in a puncture clearly being established in the remains. Jebel Sahaba is one of the oldest sites with evidences of interpersonal violence aged at least 13.2 ka, not from a single warfare but a series of sporadic and intermittent wars, triggered by major climatic changes. Since the discovery of Jebel Sahaba Cemetery in 1960’s it has been one of the earliest evidences of organised warfare caused by environmental constraints.[2]  Similar cases of embedded lithic and healed fractures is also documented from the individuals buried in the Wadi Halfa Cemetery.[3]  The reason can be mostly for land for the cultivation of food. Since then wars have been fought across timelines and spatially well distributed across geographies. The literature ascertains that the recent ones in the timelines have been for more political reasons. It was mainly for political and economic reasons in the recent years of the history. This makes sense, since human societies have found stability in food production with the advancements in agriculture production and preservation techniques. Wars have carved human history and climate adds a dimension to the overall thinking of the issue.

In recent years, climate change has been defined as a ‘security’ problem, which can increase the risk of violent conflict. Geographically, Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries and the least equipped to manage the risks associated with the changing climate. Afghanistan has historically been plagued by drought, flood, avalanches, landslides, extreme weather events, mass displacement, conflict, and social inequalities. Afghanistan being primarily an agriculture based economy, little attention has been paid to climate induced changes. According to the International Organization for Migration, a third of Afghans have migrated or have been displaced[4]. This adds to the already existing problem of internal displacement and refugee crisis. Water and food security when looking towards mitigating climate induced conflicts is imperative in the case of Afghanistan.

Humanitarian engineering techniques can be used to create sustainable settlements which can help in continuity management even after the crisis/disaster. Such a system need to be strategized, planned and executed as a disaster management recovery technique involving a coordinated effort by multiple stakeholders (the policy makers and governments in collaboration with international organisations and NGO’s). There is possibility of identifying lands, installing housing systems integrated with farming and local water resources to form new self-sufficient refugee settlements. The motive being to channel funds with a long-term perspective aiding poverty alleviation and mitigating social displacement traumas

Climate Induced Migration & Displacement

The recent anthropogenic interferences, especially in the last 100 years since industrialisation, have posed a serious threat in the form of changing climate variables. Climate change as defined by the World Meteorological Organisation is a systematic change in weather patterns over a 30-year timeline. Since 2007, climate change has been recognized as a major international security issue.[5] The securitization of climate change has contributed to the heightened concern regarding the risks that climate change poses on the political landscape. The International Organization for Migration defined environmental migrants as “people or groups of people who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad"[6]. One can be forced to migrate mainly due to 3 climate induced scenarios (i) due to a slow onset of environment deterioration of environment, (ii) migration due to recurrent events and (iii) displacement due to climate induced disaster. The availability of global data on migration due to climate change is limited as of now, even though many studies link violent conflicts to climate change.[7] Even though climate change as such does not induce conflicts, it can act as a threat multiplier due to the reduced availability of physical resources like air, water and space. This in turn can lead to conflicts between states for resources and food. In the case of Afghanistan, being an agrarian economy, the conditions of extended drought and lack of other resources, combined with rapidly increasing population can lead to violent intra-state conflicts.

Several world leaders like Barack Obama and Ban Ki Moon have echoed their concerns of climate related conflicts from as early as 2013.[8] The climate change conditions along with the other mediating factors like economic, political, institutional and ethno-cultural conditions lead to intrastate conflicts.[9] There have been research evidences linking increasing temperatures to violent crimes and riots. Most of the cases are not direct causes of climate change but are threat multipliers like food availability and increased prices. This forces the deprived and the poor to engage in organised conflicts for critical resources for survival. These intrastate conflicts can take shape of riots, communal violence or civil conflicts.[10] In case of Afghanistan, a highly agriculture dependent economy, climate change can alter ecosystem functions on which the local economy relies. This in turn can lead to increased levels of poverty, and when combined with a history of ethno-political conflicts can lead to increased migration and displacement due violent conflicts for food, water and shelter.

The Case of Afghanistan

A refugee crisis was triggered post-Taliban takeover on August 15, 2021 which by mid-2022 reached a staggering number of 2.8 million Afghans internationally and 4.3 million Afghans internally displaced.[11] Afghanistan has long been plagued instances of humanitarian and environmental crisis with food security, conflicts, instability and climate change.[12] The past four decades of war and disorder, combined with the change of power to Taliban’s hands in the late 2021 has triggered an economic crisis with the international funding decreased, an increase in local unemployment and reduced demand.  Even though the contribution of Afghanistan towards the anthropogenic induced emissions is insignificant, it is touted to have major climate induced problems as per the recent climate models of the region, which are published annually in the IPCC reports by UNFCC.[13] After the last four decades of conflicts and instability an estimated 10.9 million Afghans remain displaced and the climate factor is only adding to the plight.[14] The Afghan population is highly dependent on the natural resources of the country. The same resources which are under severe stress from climate induced factors. When combined with the weak institutional structures and management practices there is a great chance of increasing conflicts for reduced resources. This can aggravate the existing migration crisis, which makes Afghanistan a hotspot for climate related conflicts necessitating a long-term resilience building.

The humanitarian aid and related job opportunities eroded away after the Afghan Government lead by Ghelani fell. As per the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre data, 289 severe disaster events were reported (drought, flood, erosion & extreme temperature), which created severe ripples on agricultural activities. This has internally displaced 899,000 citizens leading to widespread loss of housing, livelihoods and access to education resulting in poverty and malnutrition.[15] The US Government has been one of the major donors in the region with a total aid worth of $2.1 billion flowing in for providing emergency food and nutrition assistance, sanitation and hygiene, protection, shelter and creation of livelihoods. The GDP of Afghanistan is expected to stagnate and the poverty set to remain at around 40%[16], the current scenario of reduced humanitarian aid and inward remittances is a great challenge for the Taliban-led Interim Taliban Administration (ITA). At the same time, this provides ITA an opportunity to create long-term resilience through self-sufficiency resettlement systems which can find a nexus between short-term adaptation and long-term resilience building.[17] With Pakistan’s 2023 announcement to repatriate undocumented Afghans back to their home country, the country is expected to receive an additional 61,000 refugees. Self-sufficiency systems can help Afghanistan find a balance between managing the refugee crisis, creating economic opportunities and helping to grow the GDP based on agricultural activities.

Refugee Camps

            Refugee camps are defined as “plot(s) of land temporarily made available to host refugees fleeing from an armed conflict in temporary homes.”[18]  The definition has been broadened in the recent years to account for environmental disasters, poverty and ethnic persecution.  But, refugee camps often take the shape of permanent urban settlements with populations ranging from 25,000 to 100,000 people, leading to a permanent settlement rather than a temporary one, especially with an increasing refugee population across the world, and particularly in Afghanistan. The design of these camps are provided in the UNHCR Handbook. On a careful study of these regulations, little attention has been given to the design of these camps, which renders them as temporary transit homes losing out on the opportunity to turn them into long term sustainable settlements.[19] As per the latest UNHCR Global Trends reports in 2023, 10.9 million Afghan remained displaced. Almost half of the population, around 40 million, remain internally displaced while opportunities of sustainable return remain limited due to acute food security.[20]

Refugee camps take the shape of permanent urban settlements, lasting for several years or even decades, despite being intended as transient or temporary systems. Design considerations should address the long term sustainability aspects of the settlements. With the impact of climate change and increasing world-wide displacements, these modern settlements should even go further and be designed as hubs of economic production and social justice. With the potential to contribute to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in line with the Paris Agreement, aid organisations and governments especially in low income conflict ridden countries like Afghanistan should see these settlements as an engine of economic growth and long term resilience building exercise. In the short term these can be centres of self-sufficiency, which can deliver on the three pillars of sustainability; economic wellbeing, social equity and justice, and balance with environment and ecosystem.

The humanitarian organisations, governments, NGO’s and other institutions can take a long-term urban view while strategizing, planning, building and maintaining these resettlement communities so that they can be a permanent home and livelihood opportunity for the displaced, not only providing them protection and safety, but contributing  to the economic development of the country.

The Principle of Sufficiency Economy

            The present refugee crisis in Afghanistan can be closely co-related to widespread migration from rural agricultural societies to urban centres for better opportunities. These aggregation of human resources around tight geographical spaces increases the efficiency of resources. Which has historically came to be known as cities. Cities are a concept which was developed from a complex system of societies coming together to form civilisations. The societies came together based on the resources available in the region, mainly food and water, which can sustain a population, leading to the formation of small regions of concentrated human settlements. The principle of self-sufficiency is a step ahead in conceptualising these urban settlements has hubs of regenerative growth which can assure the economic and mental wellbeing of the participating households.

The three core components of Self-sufficiency economy are (a) reasonableness (b) moderation & (c) self-immunity.[21]  The underlying principles are knowledge and morality. The ideas seems to contrast the core principles of business which is modelled for the gains of a few shareholders, but this is not a theory of economics rather a set of rules, guidelines and good choices for the prosperity of everyone.[22] There is a close link between self-sufficiency and sustainability. It also helps to increase the resilience of the refugee settlements to external shocks like supply chain risks and trade wars which can cut their food supplies and medical support.[23] 

A typical design of such a settlement should take care of the following aspects: 

Restore urban biodiversity: Create green roofs, plant native species, and build urban forests.

Transform infrastructure: Use regenerative materials and design buildings that produce more energy than they consume.

Harvest rainwater: Improve water management systems to reduce runoff and replenish groundwater.

Rewild public spaces: Turn empty lots or underused spaces into thriving habitats for wildlife. This can help in land restoration and bio diversity rebuild

Support circular economies: Implement systems where waste becomes a resource, like composting and material reuse.

Empower communities: Provide training for green jobs and prioritize the well-being of refugees in alignment with their reasonable economic growth.

Collaborate with Indigenous knowledge: Partner with local and Indigenous groups to design settlements that are in harmony with the land.

Afghanistan is vulnerable to global warming. Droughts and water access has previously induced regional conflicts. A major cause of conflict in this region is the lack of regulated and sustainable land use given that approximately 80% of the population are employed in farming.[24]  There has been increased cases of conflicts associated with growing urbanisation as more and more people are leaving rural agrarian economies to find economic opportunities in urban cities. Environmental induced migrants are extremely vulnerable as they don’t have legal recognition in the current international legal framework and hence doesn’t confer a binding responsibility on states.[25] 

Even though Afghanistan, has not ratified the Paris Agreement and hence is not included in the climate negotiations, the SDG criteria can be utilised as an evaluation technique for impact measurements of the aid fund programs. The current utilisation of funds as aids is tagged as an expense and adds to the total debt of the country without any positive effect on the GDP. The temporary outlook also leads to inefficient utilisation of critical resources like water and waste management services. Furthermore, the lack of a sustainable livelihood adds to problems like anxiety, depression and mental problems.[26] Target 10.7 of SDG Goal 10; “Reduce Inequality within and among countries” points to the “orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration, and mobility of people, which includes the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies”. But, there is a widespread outcry among stakeholders and policymakers of leaving out migration and displacement from SDG goals and targets, commonly referred to as the refugee gap.

Conclusion

Wars have always been a part of human history and evolution. As time passed, wars became more organised with clear tactics and strategies. It started with the demand for more resources, then transitioned into a political front and the future years are touted to see wars for reducing resources due to climate change. This will lead to increased migrations and hence there is an urgent need to reconceptualise refugee camps from the reference point of sustainable development and long term disaster management techniques. The international organisation like UN and the international aid agencies should consider refugee settlement investments with a clear framework for sustainable development while giving the displaced people protection, shelter and access to basic resources. Afghanistan, as a refugee hotspot gives a perfect test bed for such projects as it is undergoing a major climate induced migration and political instability.

Voluntary repatriation is considered the best possible solution to refugee displacement. In the recent Taliban era, they are seeking international recognition not provided earlier from 1996 to 2001. This can be used to put international diplomatic pressure on the Taliban regime to fulfil its promise of an inclusive government which respects democratic processes and ensures the rights of woman and children.  With increased inflow of refugees to other countries like Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, there is a lack of resources.[27] Canadian and Australian government has also pledged to increase their refugee intake which has put focus on creating sustainable refugee resettlement plans. As the principle of non-refoulement a cornerstone of international refugee law prohibits sending back refugees even if their claims are rejected, it is imperative for the receiving nations to come up with long term solutions for refugee resettlements.[28]

The case of Afghanistan stands as a perfect scenario analysis which can be applied to other scenarios across the world given its long standing history of refugee crisis for at least a quarter of a century. However the ambition of the Taliban lead Government is a big question on the lives of this deprived and underserved population.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).