Prime Minister Mark Carney appointed two top Cabinet ministers to Sweden and Finland in August, in a step toward deepening ties with its Nordic NATO allies amid Russia’s saber rattling in the Arctic, Canada’s  strategic frontier. 

Months before Mark Carney was elected to office, Canada unveiled an Arctic Foreign Policy in December 2024 addressing current needs and challenges while anticipating how the region will change in the coming decades. It builds on the 2019 Arctic and Northern Policy Framework (ANPF) replacing earlier strategies like 2009 Northern Strategy in the backdrop of the rapid changes in the region, marking a shift from Canada’s focused attention on bilateral ties with the US, heightened security threats from actors like Russia and China, and accelerated climate change impacts. 

Canada’s northern strategic frontier is emerging as an integral pivot to the evolving global trade, security, and geopolitics. The geopolitical value of the Arctic stems from its vast untapped reserves of hydrocarbons and critical minerals. The North Pacific Ocean is a crucial maritime trade route that links key Indo-Pacific countries with North and South America, particularly via the Trans-Pacific Route and the Panama Canal. This connection facilitates the movement of goods between Asia's manufacturing centers and the Americas' consumer markets, making the North Pacific a major global shipping artery. 

The increasing viability of the Northern Sea Route offers an alternative to traditional routes that pass through geopolitical choke points like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, which can be vulnerable to security risks and blockages. This diversification enhances the resilience of global supply chains for major economic players in the Indo-Pacific. 

Highlighting the growing strategic importance of the Arctic and the increasing interconnectedness of Arctic and Indo-Pacific security, Canada advocates an alignment of resources and diplomatic efforts to address common interests in the region.  

Canada’s China Challenge in Arctic 

Over the years Canada’s guardrails of foreign policy have weakened owing to the reflexes of Russa- Ukraine war, climate change, and China’s concerted effort to expand its sphere of influence in the Arctic, that covers 40% of Canada's landmass and hosts critical resources (e.g., minerals, hydrocarbons) and routes (e.g., Northwest Passage). 

The emergence of the China-challenge in the Arctic has drawn attention of the arctic and non-arctic actors holding stakes in the region. Revealing its interest in the mineral reserves and shipping routes that climate change has opened up, China claimed to be a “near-Arctic state,” in 2018. China seeks to advance its economic interests by using the "Polar Silk Road" program as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at improving shipping routes and opening up access to natural resources. Since then, Chinese officials have been cooperating closely with Russia on mining projects in the Arctic

Concerns have been raised about China's "military-civil fusion" being used in Arctic scientific research that includes satellite navigation (BeiDou), oceanographic studies, and underwater acoustic research, which can have both civilian and military applications risking espionage vulnerability. Ottawa has accused China of blurring research and reconnaissance, with vessels routinely entering Canadian waters. 

The Joint Russia-China exercises in July 2024, including bomber patrols near Alaska, have heightened alarms, with Canada's spy agency (CSIS) labeling the Arctic a "strategic and vulnerable destination". Carney called China the biggest security threat to Canada during his election campaign early this year.

Canada’s Policy Driven Approach 

Canada emphasizes a whole-of-foreign-policy approach when integrating its 2024’s Arctic Foreign Policy with Indo Pacific.

The North Pacific serves as a strategic maritime gateway connecting the two regions, which is becoming more accessible due to climate change.  The Arctic's melting sea ice is making the Northern Sea Route (NSR) more accessible for shipping between Asia and Europe, offering a route that is significantly shorter than the traditional Suez Canal passage. For example, the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor could reduce transit time between India and Russia from 32 days to 12.

In order to counter growing threats particularly from Russia and China, Canada is enhancing cooperation with like-minded states, particularly Japan and South Korea. Analysts suggest Canada's trilateral with Japan and South Korea offers ‘a timely opportunity’ for ensuring stable supply of critical minerals and advanced technology, crucial for defense and future economic resilience.

As per recent reports, Canada is teaming up with Australia to boost Arctic security and will invest in Nunavut’s infrastructure. It includes more than $6 billion investment for Canada’s Arctic over-the-horizon radar system that will be developed in partnership with Australia. Over-the-horizon radar has the capability to detect targets hundreds of kilometres beyond the scope of ordinary radar.

Canada aims to secure its economic interests in the Arctic through critical mineral development and diversified energy supplies, while supporting trade and economic growth in partnership with Indo-Pacific countries.  Through its Arctic and Northern Policy Framework, Canada emphasizes collaboration on climate change and sustainable development, with a strong focus on transitioning to clean energy. Canada has upgraded its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with South Korea, aligning their Indo-Pacific strategies to build stronger ties, enhance defense and security cooperation, and address shared challenges.

Canada’s Indo Pacific Strategy postures India as a critical partner, mentioning it 27 times on the strategy document. It specifically mentions ‘India’s growing strategic, economic and demographic importance in the Indo-Pacific makes it a critical partner in Canada’s pursuit of its objectives under this strategy. 

India has emerged as a key non-Arctic stakeholder in the region due to its observer status in the Arctic Council since 2013 and the release of its official Arctic Policy in March 2022. India's engagement, prioritizing science diplomacy while cautiously expanding economically, has deepened amid rapid Arctic changes driven by climate warming, resource competition, and geopolitical shifts. India has the opportunity to invest in icebreaking capabilities and diversified partnerships with like-minded nations in the Arctic posturing itself as a responsible polar power in the region.

The North Pacific and Arctic area are no longer a low-tension region with major powers deploying naval forces to protect their interests. 

Analysts see China's comprehensive approach using economic, scientific, and diplomatic means to expand China's presence to the Arctic as a multi-pronged strategy focused on gaining long-term influence. China considers NATO concerns about its Arctic ambitions "Cold War thinking" from Western countries. China has voiced its opposition to NATO expansion, particularly the addition of Finland and Sweden, arguing that it diminishes China's room for maneuver in the region and intensifies geopolitical competition.

In light of the edgy circumstances, the Arctic necessitates stronger diplomatic and strategic attention in order to address the emerging challenges. Critics argue Canada is still pursuing a passive strategic approach in its pursuits to secure the Arctic.  Analysts like Alexander Dalziel urge actionable plans, noting Russia-China convergence in joint patrols. In a report Dalziel commented: “Canada is sleepwalking into Arctic irrelevance. Canadian leaders need to ‘think Arctic’ when they think foreign affairs and defence. It should become a policy reflex.”  

In essence, Canada's strategy marks a step towards treating the region as a frontier, prioritizing deterrence over past cooperation.     

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).